Imagine.
We develop a new generation of prospective scenarios quantified and compatible with the planetary boundaries.
A new generation of prospective scenarios global.
One calculation model of the resource, climate and biodiversity footprint of human activities based on scientific work with research centers.
A method of creating scenarios supported by design fiction.
We study the evolution of Human societies
A social and societal level, in which we explore changes in the representation of the world, in values, which have a strong link with regulatory changes, laws but also lifestyles and production methods. These social, cultural and political changes have material consequences.
A material level, then, that of human activities and the infrastructures necessary for their exercise, whose evolution is strongly linked to changes at the social and societal level, since they translate wills, representations, desires, desires, habits or constraints into lifestyles and production constraints.
We study the evolution of the Earth system
A material level on the Earth system, i.e. the planetary boundaries: material resources, biodiversity, climate via GHG emissions and concentrations. Here, we calculate - thanks to the model - the impacts on the global limits of the consumption and production choices that result from our scenarios.
Method of screenwriting
IF Initiative and its partners have developed a capacity to produce prospective scenarios compatible with global boundaries.
1. Choice of climate and biodiversity limits
We define a climate limit expressed in °C and a limit on biodiversity expressed as a percentage of deforestation.
CO-DEFINITION WITH OUR CORPORATE PARTNERS
2. Geopolitics and regionalization
We choose a “geopolitical scenario”: a vision of the state of international relationships that can cause potential ruptures in the exchanges of goods and materials by geographical areas.
CO-DEFINITION WITH OUR RESEARCH PARTNERS
3. Trajectories of human activities
For each region, we define hypotheses on the evolution of end uses (e.g. mobility, housing, etc.) and technological choices (e.g. energy mix).
CO-DEFINITION WITH OUR CORPORATE PARTNERS
4. Constraints on human activities
We choose hypotheses about access to natural resources (e.g. copper, oil) and the evolution of technology (e.g. energy intensity and material of industrial processes) that also constrain human activities. Note that the impact of climate change on the physical infrastructure of the economy and agriculture is taken into account.
CO-DEFINITION WITH OUR CORPORATE PARTNERS
5. Calculation by the model
Scenarization hypotheses are provided in our biophysical model. This makes it possible to calculate the physical footprint associated with the hypotheses put forward and to visualize the possible overruns in the face of the chosen limits.
6. Adjustment and resolution of user competitions
If the thresholds (availability of resources and environmental limits) that result from the constraints defined in hypotheses are exceeded, the technological mixes and the end uses are adjusted, taking into account the potential competitions of uses between sectors.
7. Data extraction and formatting
We obtain a description of economic activities via biophysical indicators (e.g.: m² built, quantity of electric cars produced) We use the data obtained on each sector and each region to produce a series of scenarios.
Works of modelling
The biophysical model makes it possible to calculate the physical footprint of lifestyles and the biophysical economic system associated with narratives, in order to verify their physical feasibility.
A quantified description of end uses in 2060 is given as input to the model (diet, kilometers traveled per person per year, kg of new textile per person per year, etc.).
In addition, a quantified description of the industrial system: technical options (part of solar in the electrical mix/part of water electrolysis in hydrogen production) and performance of each process (load factor of solar electricity production/energy efficiency of water electrolysis)
From these inputs, the model calculates the flows of finished products, energy, water, water, raw materials, recycled material, arable area necessary to satisfy final uses.
The associated energy (production, transport, energy storage) and industrial infrastructure is also described.
From this are deduced the environmental impacts (CO emissions).2, pressure on biodiversity, water withdrawal, total quantity of minerals and fossil resources extracted from the subsoil) associated with input hypotheses.
These results are compared with the environmental objectives of the scenario under construction (climate trajectory, ambition to preserve biodiversity).
If the environmental impacts do not meet the objectives, the input hypotheses must be adjusted and a simulation run again. This iterative process continues until a description of the end uses and the industrial system is obtained that is consistent with the environmental objectives.
